Data specialists predict 2022-23 Championship tableplaceholder image
Data specialists predict 2022-23 Championship table

This is where PNE, Blackpool, Sheffield United & Sunderland will finish in the Championship — according to data experts

By Dan Black
Published 27th Jul 2022, 06:00 GMT

Savvy statisticians at data specialists FiveThirtyEight have christened the start of the Football League campaign with their latest Championship predictions.

Expert analysts have been crunching the numbers with the help of their SPI (Soccer Power Index) rating system and various metrics in order to project the final standings for the 2022-23 term in England’s second tier.

The formula is complicated, but thorough, it's a matrix of possibilities and probabilities, which are then run through Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts.

You can check out all FiveThirtyEight’s methodologies here.

Two of the sides relegated from the Premier League last season are expected to clinch the automatic promotion spots and regain their top flight status while two of the newly-promoted teams are being tipped to make an immediate return to League One.

Scroll through our gallery to see how the division could pan out.

Predicted points: 66. Goal difference: +5. SPI: 46.2. Chances of winning Championship: 3%. Chances of promotion: 12%. Chances of making play-offs: 20%.

7. Coventry City

Predicted points: 66. Goal difference: +5. SPI: 46.2. Chances of winning Championship: 3%. Chances of promotion: 12%. Chances of making play-offs: 20%. Photo: Ross Kinnaird

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Predicted points: 64. Goal difference: +2. SPI: 44.7. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 10%. Chances of making play-offs: 18%.

8. Stoke City

Predicted points: 64. Goal difference: +2. SPI: 44.7. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 10%. Chances of making play-offs: 18%. Photo: George Wood

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Predicted points: 64. Goal difference: +2. SPI: 44.7. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 10%. Chances of making play-offs: 18%. Chances of relegation: 8%.

9. Preston North End

Predicted points: 64. Goal difference: +2. SPI: 44.7. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 10%. Chances of making play-offs: 18%. Chances of relegation: 8%. Photo: Clive Brunskill

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Predicted points: 63. Goal difference: +0. SPI: 43.6. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 9%. Chances of making play-offs: 16%. Chances of relegation: 9%.

10. Blackburn Rovers

Predicted points: 63. Goal difference: +0. SPI: 43.6. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 9%. Chances of making play-offs: 16%. Chances of relegation: 9%. Photo: RONNY HARTMANN

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Predicted points: 62. Goal difference: -1. SPI: 43.1. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 8%. Chances of making play-offs: 15%. Chances of relegation: 10%.

11. Millwall

Predicted points: 62. Goal difference: -1. SPI: 43.1. Chances of winning Championship: 2%. Chances of promotion: 8%. Chances of making play-offs: 15%. Chances of relegation: 10%. Photo: Jacques Feeney

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Predicted points: 61. Goal difference: -3. SPI: 42.2. Chances of winning Championship: 1%. Chances of promotion: 7%. Chances of making play-offs: 14%. Chances of relegation: 11%.

12. Luton Town

Predicted points: 61. Goal difference: -3. SPI: 42.2. Chances of winning Championship: 1%. Chances of promotion: 7%. Chances of making play-offs: 14%. Chances of relegation: 11%. Photo: Charlotte Tattersall

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