Met Office predicts heatwaves very likely for UK in three-month outlook

By Isabella Boneham
Monday, 2nd May 2022, 4:25 pm

The UK could be set for a glorious summer this year as the Met Office predicts "warmer-than-average" conditions over the next few months, with chances of a heatwave higher than normal.

This follows an early heatwave in April which saw temperatures reach up to 23C in parts of the south east, before it turned grey and drizzly for most towards the end of the month.

However, the Met Office’s three-month summer forecast will lift spirits, as the weather experts say chances of “hot weather” are double that of other years.

Here’s a look at what weather the Met Office has forecast for the summer and what temperatures will be like in May, June and July.

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    What is the forecast for the next three months?

    The Met Office issued their three-month outlook on Sunday (1 May).

    It states that the chance of the next few months being hot is higher than normal, as well as the impacts from heatwaves being more likely. It added that there will be a slight reduction in the chance of a wet period.

    In terms of numbers, the Met Office predicts that in the next three months there is a 40% chance that the season will be hot, which is two times more than the normal chance.

    There is a 50% chance that the season will be near average, 0.8 times lower than the normal average.

    The Met Office has predicted there will be a 10% chance of the season being cool, while there is a 15% chance that the season will be wet.

    Overall, there is a very high chance that the next few months will have warmer-than-average conditions.

    What has the Met Office said?

    The Met Office said: “Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean heatwaves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of heatwaves compared to normal, particularly in June and July.

    “Even with a slight reduction in the chance of a wet period, spells of wetter weather are likely bringing heavy showers or thunderstorms at times.”

    The Met Office added that their predictions are consistent in suggesting an increase in the likelihood of temperatures being above average overall.

    However, they did note that there are mixed signals as to whether the high pressure will be centred over the UK or further south.

    The outlooks suggests the chances of heatwaves are higher than normal, but the Met Office said that “a range of conditions much less extreme than heatwaves are also possible.”

    “The increased chance of hot conditions could just as easily reflect a mix of hot and cool days, warm nights, or less extreme levels of warmth rather than heatwave conditions specifically,” they added.

    What is the forecast for May 2022?

    Saturday 7 May - Monday 16 May

    The Met Office forecasts settled weather for much of this period, with dry conditions in many areas, especially in the south.

    Northerly regions are more likely to see showers with heavier rain at times and strong winds.

    Temperatures are likely to remain above average except by the coast and far north which will see slightly cooler conditions.

    Coastal areas may also experience periods of low cloud or fog.

    The very end of the period could see a change to slightly more unsettled conditions, bringing periods of rain or showers more widely across the country.

    Monday 16 May - Monday 30 May

    Lower pressure is more likely in the second half of May, with spells of rain or showers for most.

    However, some drier spells are still possible in the south.

    Temperatures are likely to remain near or above normal throughout.