Fylde quarterly economic survey shows weakening picture

The results of the latest Quarterly Economic Survey from the Lancashire Chambers of Commerce show that the county economy was softening even before the vote to leave the European Union.

Tuesday, 12th July 2016, 12:05 pm
Updated Thursday, 25th August 2016, 7:41 pm
Stephen Gregson from Moore and Smalley

The new survey, compiled by the county’s Chambers of Commerce in association with Moore and Smalley Chartered Accountants, was completed by almost 300 Lancashire firms operating across all sectors of the economy.

Figures from the survey reveal that nearly all of the key economic indicators weakened compared to the previous quarter. Workforce levels, cashflow, investment, domestic sales and orders were down across both sectors, with manufacturers in particular continuing to have a difficult time.

The manufacturing UK sales balance lost sixteen points in Q2 (-3 per cent, down from +13 per cent) and went in to contraction for the first time since Q3 2012.

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Perhaps the most positive news from this quarter’s survey was that almost all of the business confidence measures improved, with firms in both sectors optimistic that turnover and profitability would increase over the next 12 months.

However, with fieldwork for the survey closing prior to polling day for the EU referendum, the concern now must be what impact the Brexit result has on business confidence for the rest of 2016 and beyond.

Stephen Gregson, corporate finance director at Moore and Smalley said: “The last quarter’s QES results in many respects give out a sense of weakening for want of a better word. In normal circumstances we might consider this as part of the normal ebb and flow. In many respects the more interesting, and relevant, results will be seen in the surveys yet to come.”

Babs Murphy, chief executive of the North and Western Lancashire Chamber, said:“At a time of great uncertainty, policy makers must get back on the front foot with a detailed plan to help navigate the UK economy through choppy waters, including much needed support for our exporters.”