'We’re in the bizarre position of wanting Covid to stay, at least for a little while': Low coronavirus transmission rate could jeopardise vaccine trial
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Oxford University’s Jenner Institute and the Oxford Vaccine Group began development on a coronavirus vaccine in January, using a virus taken from chimpanzees.
Following an initial phase of testing on 160 healthy volunteers between 18 and 55, the study is now set to progress to phases two and three, which involve increasing the testing to up to 10,260 people and expanding the age range of volunteers to include children and the elderly.
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Hide AdBut a leading member of the project has told The Sunday Telegraph that the low transmission of Covid-19 in the community leaves the trial with only a 50% chance of success.
Professor Adrian Hill, director of the Jenner Institute, told the paper that if the virus’s spread is too low not enough of the volunteers will catch it and the trial will be unable to definitively say if the vaccine works.
“It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Hill said.
“We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s
a 50% chance that we get no result at all.
“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting Covid to stay, at least for a little while.”