The Met Office is predicting that the UK could see close to record breaking warm weather in 2019.
The global temperature forecast suggests that the record warmth will be due to climate change and the added effect of El Niño-related warming in the Pacific.
El Niño is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with can have global impact on weather patterns. The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America.
The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2019 to be between 0.98 °C and 1.22 °C higher than the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. Since 1850, 2016 is the warmest year on record.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “Our forecasts suggest that by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000.
The forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it does not include unpredictable events, such as a large volcanic eruption, which would cause a temporary cooling.
Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, said: “The forecast for 2019 would place next year amongst the five warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015. All of these years have been around 1 °C warmer than the pre-industrial period”.